Okay, so analyzing the level of competition and popular decks and then taking a two-pronged approach to the concept of strategic counters can give you a lot of information. But if information also happens to be kicking around for free, take it. If a Regional or Darkmoon Faire is being held in an area you¡¯re familiar with, odds are good that a large segment of the players will be locals. If they happen to be guys you play cards with every weekend, you probably have a good idea of what they¡¯ll play.

In addition, because the local player population is often such a big portion of the field, metagame trends you¡¯re familiar with will probably emerge. Are players aggressive in your area? Then expect aggro decks. Do conservative strategies tend to win all your locals? Then prepare yourself for that. If you aren¡¯t traveling very far to your event, then you probably already have a wealth of knowledge that you could apply.

Don¡¯t know how to define your metagame? Try comparing it to the tournaments you read about in live coverage. Looking at those Top 8 decklists and thinking about how they deviate from your local scene can help you quickly understand the unique trends in your area. You can literally just count the number of each archetype in the Top 8 and then compare those percentages to what you¡¯re used to seeing in your locals. You don¡¯t need to bust out the calculator; just think over the play styles each deck represents and how the approximate percentages match up.

Take these four factors into account and you¡¯ll be able to predict the shape of any big tournament with a respectable level of accuracy. There are upsets and surprise decks now and then, but those are surprisingly easy to deal with when you¡¯re already beating 90% of the field. Master this process, and I guarantee that your consistency in major events will absolutely skyrocket.